A question on blank spoiled votes

Question for the floor:

I heard today that there were a surprisingly high number of blank spoiled votes in the April election in the GHT region.

Was this because:

a) These were people who did not want to vote (for whatever reason) but felt they needed to be seen to vote, because of real or perceived intimidation.

b) These were people who had supported the ANC in the past and perhaps still support the ANC, and who believe in the importance of voting, but felt they could not vote for the ANC in this particular election (for whatever reason). But out of loyalty to the ANC they also could not vote for another party.

c) These were people who believe in the importance of voting but felt that their views and concerns were not represented by any of the parties on the ballot.

d) Other reasons (please expand!)


I'm curious because at the talk where I heard this fact, people proposed a couple of reasons for the blank votes. And I had my own thoughts. And I'd be interested to hear what other people think...

A completely different picture!

Here is the equivalent graph for the voting stations in the Western Cape:



I had better get to work so I am not going to comment on it. But isn't that just a completely different picture!

Election Results by Laura

My labmates and I have been eagerly watching the News24 election results map all day - it is quite wonderful! (It is here if you haven't seen it yet).

But we have also been lamenting that there are no graphs.

So here is my offering to the floor - a graph of the Eastern Cape votes counted so far. It shows the leading 5 parties, and the percentage of the vote they got in each voting district. (The voting districts are just each given a number on the x-axis).


See, isn't that fantastic! You can tell so much from this graph! That the ANC is doing well across the board, except for a few dips. The big dip towards the right must be a UDM stronghold - and if I go back and check what areas those polling stations were in, they were from the OR Tambo District. So that must be a large area of UDM support.

The DA and COPE are interesting. COPE has fair percentages across most polling stations, ranging between about 10 - 20%. The DA is different though - across most sites it has almost no support at all. But where it does have support, it has strong support, often beating the ANC.

I suppose (what do you think? perhaps I am wrong?) that it is because DA votes are concentrated in primarily white suburbs, where a vast majority of people vote DA. COPE votes, however, are move evenly spread across urban, rural, opulent and impoverished areas. And perhaps more evenly spread across racial lines too?

The ID doesn't have much support. But the areas where it does have support are also areas of strong DA support - I suppose the ID and DA appeal to similar sections of the electorate. But here is another interesting thing - DA and ID peaks pretty much always go together. But there are COPE peaks where there are no DA and ID voters. What is that telling us? That COPE was getting votes from areas that are not traditionally opposition party strongholds. In other words - in those areas COPE was taking previously ANC (or UDM) votes! Also interesting in that COPE and the UDM often have similar areas of strength.

Interesting!

I'll make a map of the Western Cape for curiosity's sake too quick, then I had better work!

The ANC Election Manifesto

I'm sorry, I promised ages ago that I would say something about the ANC election manifesto. And I had very good intentions and looked for it online and everything... then somehow life got busy and we now have this prepaid internet at home so I feel less free messing around online...

Excuses excuses!

Anyway, so let me add my random thoughts on the ANC election manifesto:

* Jobs
I must say, I am a bit cynical about this one. Their emphasis in the manifesto is on "decent" jobs - Blande Nzimande (I think it was him) who spoke before Zuma at the manifesto launch mentioned that the staff in the hotel they were staying at had been contract workers for something like 15 years. So the ANC wants to create not just work, but decent work. And the manifesto speaks about "laws regulating contract work, subcontracting and out-sourcing." Which maybe has some merit, but makes me a bit nervous too. I definitely think people shouldn't be exploited, but you also just don't want give government too much control... Next thing you will have to apply to government whenever you hire or fire anyone...
They mentioned an expanded public works programme, and that I think is a good idea.
I don't know... I really am cynical about the government saying "job creation!" I really think the government has very limited power to create jobs. And it has been "creating jobs" for 15 years now without dramatic effect. I think the "creating jobs" line is something we would all really like to see happen. But government can't actually promise to deliver on it...

* Rural development
Personally, I think this is a really important issue.
I often drive past these little villages in the Eastern Cape and wonder how things are for them. I really don't have much of an idea, actually. But every now and then I hear stories of horrible crimes in the ruralish areas around East London and I just hope they have some sort of access to police out there...?? I wonder. And every now and then I'll bump into some poor lady in the street who has come into town to buy prepaid electricity and doesn't really know what to do (Its probably a scam, I'm such a sucker).
Anyway, those incidences just made me wonder about it.
So yes, its just something I think is really worth focusing on as a nation. Lots of SA citizens live in rural areas and I hope they are benefiting from our prospering society like we are.
And then of course there is the land reform issue. I know it makes some people hyperventilate, but it really does need to happen. And we are either going to do it carefully and properly now or its just doing to become a disaster further down the line...

* Youth
I am really not a socialist at all. I don't believe that grants are the answer to anything. And I am not a fan of the "free education" ideal. And the idea of "no fee" schools... I can totally understand what motivates that, but it seems to me that is just strangles the schools' ability to run themselves. I really understand the desire to make education available to people, but I think having school fee concession that poor families can apply for is a much better idea than generic no fee schools.
So anyway, the ANC's free education plan doesn't appeal to me. But I do appreciate that they are emphasising youth development, which I think is important.
Interesting that they said that they will "provide incentives for mathematics and science teachers" - I would like to see what comes of that!

* Corruption
Zuma specifically mentioned the issue of local government corruption, of giving tenders to friends and that sort of thing. I thought that was *really* good. Of course, speaking about it is one thing and actually doing something to sort out the problem is another. But I thought it was pretty significant that the ANC prioritised it enough to put in on the election manifesto.
Interesting that the manifesto explicitly says - "Establish and strengthen the new unit to fight organised crime"
Maybe they should just rename the new unit "the scorpions" and use the same logo and pretend they never disbanded the old one ;)


All in all, I though the election manifesto was pretty good. Again, I am anti big-government-control and large-scale government hand outs... so I really don't agree with the ANC's emphasis on grants and free this and that. But I also know that poverty needs to be tackled somehow. I just don't think that's the best way. Which is one of the reasons I myself do not vote ANC.

I also think the manifesto was a bit pie in the sky. But I suppose things like election manifestos always are. *Everyone* wants to fight crime and create jobs and empower the youth... the difficult thing is not saying it, its doing it.

But beyond that, I thought the manifesto hit the right notes. It addressed the things that I would consider pressing issues at the moment. And I really appreciated the emphasis on things like tackling corruption and "putt[ing] every elected official and public servant to work for our people, and ensur[ing] accountability to our people..."

(You can find the manifesto on the ANC website if you want to read it for yourselves.)

Drama in East London

I was in EL last week for the ANC election manifesto extravaganza. The whole town was abuzz... cars like the one in the picture above and ANC posters on all of the streetlights.

I went to the election manifesto launch on Saturday, which was an experience and a half. My brother and I were dropped off in a car park a few blocks away from the stadium and we walked to stadium from there, following the crowds. Unfortunately I was too skaam to take pictures of the event itself... I felt rather conspicuous being the only white person (alongside my brother) I saw there, and taking out my camera and taking photos seemed like it might be pushing my luck. I took one or two surreptitiously on my cellphone though:


The event started at 9 or 10 am (different posters advertised different starting times) but I'm told people were arriving at 6am... and I think many out of town people were bussed in and arrived the pervious day, or in the wee hours of the morning. The formal televised speeches were to start at around 11 so my bro and I arrived at about 10:30. And made our way to the stadium, as I said.

It took me about half an hour to realise the stadium we were in was actually the OVERFLOW stadium! In East London the rugby stadium is right next to the athletics stadium thingy. We were on the athletics field, watching the speakers on those big screens you can see in the picture above. I was looking around to see where they were actually speaking from, thinking the stage might face another part of the stadium. Till I realised the actual event was happening in the ABSA rugby stadium next door! People were pretty packed into the athletics stadium, so I can only imagine what the rugby stadium must have been like. So it is a pity I missed out on being in the main stadium - but maybe for the best!

But anyway, it was very worthwhile. I got to see Julius Malema semi-live, up to his new "selling South Africa to the British" antics (shame I actually felt for him, he was given about 3 minutes to speak, before the proceedings went live! I think he must be persona non grata in the ANC at the moment), Vavi (eish boring), Nzimande (charismatic, lots of "amandla"-ing), Zuma (mshini wam!) and a couple of other speakers. But mostly it was nice just to be there and catch the vibe. And get horribly sunburned.

And maybe the best part of it all was that my brother, who I draaaaged to come along with me, said it really gave him food for thought.

On TV we often see snippets of events like these, and it always seems like angry scary chaotic yellow-T-shirt people shouting. Which is so bad really, because it wasn't like that at all. But let me not begin a tirade against the media, I'm beginning to sound like an ANCYL ;)

Come now

The ANC saying it will rule till Jesus returns? that was pretty dumb. Arrogant. But not blasphemous. I don't think so anyway.

I watched a Journeyman Pictures documentary about Zuma a week or so ago. They interviewed, among others, some people from his home area. And one of them claimed that the Devil was behind all of JZ's probems.

A couple of days ago Ace Magashule, leader of the Free State ANC, claimed that JZ has been suffering in a similar way to Jesus: persecuted, insulted, betrayed (IOL article here).

The ID and the ACDP have taken exception to this, the Magashule comment in particular (here and here).

I'm a Christian, but I don't think any of the above comments were blasphemous. Do you?

I do think then can be manipulative. Definately. A large number of South Africans are Christians, so Biblical methaphor is meaningful to them. And using Biblical metaphor gives the speaker (and organisation!) an air of righteousness. He is using the Bible in his speech, it must be Godly. That sort of thing. People may not think it out exactly like that, but that is what they can come away with. Our great leaders, ordained by God, untouchable.

So yes, I think it can be manipulative. But not blasphemous.

When people made a fuss about it, Magashule responded that he was a Christian and that he wasn't comparing Zuma to Jesus, just the circumstance Zuma is in. Which I think is completely reasonable.

If anything, I think the man who blamed Zuma's troubles on the Devil was a bit more worrying. Especially because his next comments were "the strength of the Zulu nation is being tested through him" and "he was born to lead."

Goodness. I wonder if lots of people think that?

State of the Nation Address

I was waiting to hear the State of the Nation Address by Thabo Mbeki today. Its funny how people spent pages speculating about what he was going to say.

Anyway, I thought it was a *great* speech, but then I am a bit of a Thabo Mbeki fan. There seem to have been mixed reactions to it, with some people saying it was great (Jacob Zuma, for example, seems to have approved) and some people not being pleased at all. Helen Zille, for example, wrote a scathing response to it. Which I think was a bit petty really. Maybe they thought they had more favour with him than they did, maybe they saw him as more removed from the ANC than he is. But he is there as representative of the ANC after all. And he is an ANC man, of course, and losing at Polokwane doesn't make that any less true.

But anyway, what do I know!

He ended with the optimistic:

Having said all that I have said, I come back to the question: what is the state of our nation as we enter 2008!

What I do know and hereby make bold to say is: whatever the challenges of the moment, we are still on course!

For the full text of the State of the Nation Address, go here.
And for a *wonderful* four sentence long summary of the 16 page long speech, go here.